Survey Research at Work
Perhaps the greatest intellectual casualty of the 2008 financial crisis was the credibility of economics as a science. "Why didn't economists foresee the crisis?" people asked, and this lingering suspicion came to a head in a recent NYT editorial blasting economics as a scientific discipline. On first pass, I thought it was just one of those silly articles that crops up on occasion, but the more that I thought about the editorial, and compared it with some of the economic insights I have absorbed as a student, the more I was angered. And thus, I felt compelled to rant.
What should be kept in mind is that, like engineering, economics is a broad discipline that covers many different fields. Just as some engineers study computers and others study nuclear reactors, some economists study taxes, other study financial markets, and still others study how psychological biases should change the design of policy. So to use the chaos in financial markets as a reason to discredit all of economics is analogous to discrediting all of engineering on the count of a Fukushima disaster. While portions of macroeconomics may be made up of smoke, mirrors, and misleading standard errors, even a brief introspection can reveal why that is not representative of economics as a whole.
In economic models, people do whatever maximizes their self interest. However, this leaves no room for intellectual growth -- any new insight or strategy would have already been discovered by the omniscient agents! But people are of finite intelligence. As a result, their self-interest can be up for reinterpretation.
In this area, economists play the important role of introducing new *ideas* about policy. Precisely because people are not as omniscient as the agents in economic models, it's important that governments have a solid foundation on ideas to conceptualize and defend policies from critics. By introducing a new framework or a new empirical fact, economists can cast policy into a different light and redirect the conversation and agenda.
Let us first consider the canonical example of auction theory. Game theorists have been remarkably effective at designing auction mechanisms. The late Ronald Coase famously argued that the U.S. should auction off spectrum rights. Yet in his Congressional testimony, he was met with disbelief, with a congressman asking "is this a joke"? Later on, when the FCC changed its mind, it fell to economists (game theorists, no less!) to design the details of the auction. Designing such an auction is not a trivial task. Since it's advantageous to have radio frequencies in geographically contiguous areas, what a company is willing to bid on one spectrum in an area is dependent on whether it can win in other areas. Moreover, there are a host of protections you need to design. How do you stop firms from colluding? How do you make sure firms can't manipulate the bids to pay extremely low prices? When these issues were ignored in the Australian and New Zealand auctions, many hundreds of millions of dollars were lost.
Economists have also managed to change the way we talk about poverty policies in the United States. A common misconception is that impoverished people are just lazy, and that nothing can be done for them. And as a result, welfare just represents an unproductive transfer from the makers to the takers. However, survey data from the Survey Research Center at the University of Michigan has shown that poverty is most often a transitory phenomenon, and that no, welfare is not about Cadillac queens or subsidizing sloth, but rather about providing insurance for a wide range of people who live on the threshold of poverty. The fact that the national conversation sometimes forgets this point is a reminder that economists do have an important role to play in shaping the welfare policy debate, and that neglecting this can have serious human impact.
And when we take a look at the the role of economists in analyzing aid and development, the impact is even larger. The foundations of international finance and the study of capital flows explains what kinds of aid are better than others, and why it's important not only to provide money but also personnel and expertise. On a micro level, pioneering experimental work, as popularized by Esther Duflo and Abhijit Banjeree in their book titled "Poor Economics", has added an additional subtlety to the design of development policy. By integrating insights from psychology and political science, development economists like them have gone on to revise how to better provide fertilizers to farmers or how to limit the extent of patronage politics. These are all critical issues in the task of economic development, and it has fallen to economists to address them.
So far, I have focused on micro topics. But there are actually a surprisingly robust set of results about how emerging markets should handle capital flows. Stephen Salant (who is teaching me applied micro modeling this fall!) laid the foundation for speculative attacks on stockpiles of resources, such as oil or food. His model later led to Krugman's pioneering work on how currency crises happen, and the lessons from the literature on currency crises showed why external debt could be so harmful for developing economies. Anton Korinek has also made great contributions outlining the welfare arguments for avoiding external debt and currency crises. Indeed, those economies who had large stocks of external debt relative to foreign reserves were precisely the ones who suffered the most during the financial crisis. While it may not be a direct result, it is now clear to all emerging markets that a combination of external debt and exchange rate pegs can be extremely dangerous. And the absence of those two fault lines has put the emerging markets on much more stable footing during the current sell-off.
Even in the controversial field of monetary policy we're doing better. Back in the 1920's, it was thought that monetary policy should ease during the boom and tighten during the bust. This was called the Real Bills Doctrine, and ended up amplifying the business cycle. Doubt about the effect of Quantitative Easing is not equivalent to ignorance about money's effect on the macroeconomy. We might not be clear on magnitudes, but we at least know which way goes up and which goes down.
From a methodological standpoint, economists are valuable because we are trained to think about social issues through a quantitative and empirical framework. While other social sciences such as sociology and psychology are also known for their increasingly quantitative measures, economists are special because the variables we are interested in -- income, prices, population -- are easily measured and interpreted quantitative measures.
(As a digression, I was surprised that this notion of economics as socially applied statistics was completely missing from the conversation about economath. Without the work in mathematical statistics, economists would have been unable to do the measurements that we do, and the empirical studies that I describe above would not have been possible. I remember Miles Kimball joking with me that empirical macro is all about interpreting measurement error, yet without the work of generations of econometricians, we would not know of how to do that kind of analysis.)
From a personal standpoint, I will also be contributing towards this kind of research this year. Since University of Michigan is a state school, we are of course very concerned about how all of our students -- across socioeconomic classes -- are doing. And therefore I will be heading a project to design a survey instrument and analysis methodology to measure how students are doing in the off campus housing markets and to identify the potential severity of this kind of socioeconomic segmentation. (See picture). While it may be true that my project will have various flaws, I still think of it as representative of the power of empirical economics. Identify problems. Collect data. Make lives better. Wash, rinse, repeat. And at least from personal experience, this mode of analysis -- of looking at bivariate relationships, of thinking about longitudinal effects -- is not as common among my fellow social scientists from psychology or political science.
This explicitly empirical tack built into modern economics is important because the alternative to a world with economists is not some non-partisan paradise. Rather, it will be filled by the Keith Olbermanns and Sean Hannities of the world, who rely instead on cheap rhetorical tricks instead of well grounded theory and empirics.
Yet in spite of my strong conviction that economists do create value for society, I do recognize that economics, on the most part, is not an experimental science. But that should not necessarily be seen as a flaw. Economists are tasked with evaluating policies that can play such a large role in the welfare of the masses. And once you know that a certain policy is harmful, it would be a profound breach of ethics to repeatedly apply such failed policy so that you could "replicate" and make the results "scientific".
I WANT TO WRAP UP THIS POST WITH A JOKE.
A physicist, a chemist and an economist are stranded on an island, with nothing to eat. A can of soup washes ashore. The physicist says, "Lets smash the can open with a rock." The chemist says, "Let's build a fire and heat the can first." The economist says, "Lets assume that we have a can-opener..."The punchline suggests that instead of solving problems, economists just assume them away. But the real work of economics actually comes after the initial assumption. A real economist goes "..then if we had a can opener, we would be set. So let's go make a can opener." The joke misrepresents the work of economists by focusing on "opening a can" -- a task that has neither ambiguity nor great subtlety. On these issues, of course the hard sciences will be superior. But what if we asked a different question such as "how should we reduce carbon dioxide emissions"? In this case, there is no clear answer. But the economist would go "let's assume there were a price to carbon. Then the first welfare theorem means there's no inefficiency. So let's go price carbon!"
The big social problems of our day -- long term poverty, global warming, the middle income trap -- have few direct solutions, and any solution will affect portions of society in largely differing ways. And without economists to help work out the theory and empirics, how do you plan on tackling such dilemmas?
UPDATE: Indeed, long term unemployment is a more severe problem than just an intellectual scruffle. But it really does seem that after the Great Recessions, economists are (perhaps rightly) viewed with more skepticism.
I came across this picture as I was flipping through the latest edition of Atlanta's LGBT newspaper The Southern Voice and it somewhat affirmed some troubling feelings I'd been wrestling with all weekend long. As I walked through the park during pride weekend I saw many white gay couples and dozens of interracial couples. Now I'm as liberal as they come and I truly believe that love has no color, but I couldn't help feeling like the scorned black woman who was losing all of her potential mates to the other team. But on the other hand I wondered if I were missing out on love because I was determined to only have it with a black man.
If you've read any of my posts about my experiences dating then you know I've received the short end of the stick more times than not, and my last experience is just another addition to the list of relationships that have gone nowhere.
If you look at the picture closely you will see rows of smiling white faces and two black men that are almost impossible to pick out of the crowd. Are we not in commited relationships? I can answer that question for myself, I know that we are. So I guess the black couples who do exist are just not out, right?
Do white gay men know something we don't ? I refuse to believe that black gay men aren't capable of being in long term relationships or we don't care enough about an emotional connection to even consider being in a committed relationship.
What's sad is my experience almost supports the above notion. So what am I and brothas like me to do who desire a real connection with another brotha and the desire is not lining up with reality? Give up and date outside of the race? Hold on before you start to get all opinionated. I swear I'm almost to the point where I'm ready to throw in the towel and say goodbye to Raheim and hello to Hector and Billy. Not that I think it's going to be easier on the other side because building a real relationship with anyone regardless of race is hard work. But I'm not getting any younger and it's time out for games.
A friend told me that he thinks the lack of black gay long term relationships are a result of us not having a model to base our relationships on unlike our heterosexual counterparts. What do you think? All I know is that if I keep doing what I've always done I'm going to get the same result. So it may be time to try something different and women are not an option.
Reference: quickpua.blogspot.com
We have always been close and many years ago we kissed. He said his head was spinning and we stopped kissing but he wsa trying to put my hand down his pants and also he had his hand down mine nearly! I stopped him. Anyway, I have just come out of a relationship of 7 years and I am ready to start dating but he says not to do it too soon because I am still heartbroken. Thing is, I sent him a text and told him I was meeting this guy and he didn't respond not even to say have a good night but he is out with friends and he is always looking for others too.
When we are out he always looks out for me and when I hugged him once he said' I am not hard' which was not a nice thing to say. He does put me down sometimes but I can feel something from him. Thing is I think I like him too but we are close so how do I stop feeling things for him too.
I was ill recently and he took me into hospital and then text and said if i need him I can call anytime. When we are out he always looks out for me and i can tell is jealoius if i mention other guys and meeting them for dates. He talks about his dates and avoids talking about mine too much. I sign from him that I know he glares up when I mention other men.
he takes my cheek and squeeses it and teases me alot. When i go out I pulled this cute guy sand he as like you just take the first oine that comes along and he says why do you go for him and not him and points to someone else. In fact he can turn quite nasty when I point out someone gorgeous. He told a friend of mine last week that he was confused about his sexuality. He tells me he is gay but my friend he is confused.
I have known him all my life and never get him. H eonce put his hand on my bum out shopping and said so everyone knows I am his.Is this how gay men flirt with women? he is my close friend?
If you know it bothers him to talk about those other guys you like then why do you tell him? Do you enjoy the reaction you're getting from him or are you trying to test him in some way? If some of the things he says to you are rather nasty, then why are you still so willing to remain friends with him?
Maybe it's time both of you moved on in life. Let him go his way and you go yours. It's entirely possible that your 'gay friend' leans more towards being bisexual. But until he is willing to recognise that possibility within himself then there is really nothing you can do about it.
You should stand up for yourself more though, and let him know you're not willing to be spoken to or treated like a piece of trash. If he tries to put his hand on your as again, just remove it. Make sure he knows that kind of behaviour isn't acceptable.
You aren't HIS property. Good luck! :-)Is this how gay men flirt with women? he is my close friend?
I couldn't read it all but I don't think he is gay. Gay guys don't do those sort of things to a girl. He is saying he is gay to take advantage of you! Be careful!
Gay men don't flirt with women.
If he's truly gay then he was playing around.
gay men dont flirt fullstop or they over doit with flirting and try to hard (normaly the folks with a very big closet)
Gay men don't flirt with women full stop.
Gay men don't flirt with women O o
correct me if i am wrong gay men like other men not women
If a gay guy's flirting with you he's probably not gay. He could be bi though.
On the other hand he may have just been fooling round, though it doesn't really sounds like it. He sounds confused about his sexuality, so I'd leave him for a bit to find himself. If he comes back feeling differently then you should go from there. Don't force him to suddenly decide, it's a difficult thing to discuss.
Origin: datingforaverageguys.blogspot.com
Despite the fact that there are more paid and free dating sites than ever before, some people are still sceptical. How can you possibly find that special someone, they think, by searching online? Surely it's far better to get out there and search for The One in person? Well, not always, and here are just a few benefits of online dating to prove it.
o It's convenient. With many of us leading incredibly fast-paced lifestyles there's far less time to do things for ourselves. Finding opportunities to actually get out there and meet people can be few and far between, but online dating sites avoid this - we can find dates at our leisure and without having to leave the house, offering far more chance that we'll actually meet someone.
o It's hard to meet people in "usual" situations. People don't often form lasting relationships when they meet in clubs and bars, and the dream of eyes meeting over the crowds in a coffee shop rarely becomes a reality. Times are changing, and having a new way to meet someone is always advantageous.
o It's much less stressful. The first few conversations with someone can be incredibly awkward, and what about that first date? If it doesn't go well then time can be wasted and stress can be through the roof. But, with subscription and free dating sites you get the chance to vet people before you actually meet them, hopefully saving a great deal of time and hassle.
These are just a few benefits, and as you can see it's really worth giving it a go. Why not see for yourself? If you're looking for online dating sites you've come to the right place, so take a look around and see what (or who) you can find.
RELATED POSTS:
* Benefits Of Online Dating Sites
* The Rise of UK Dating Sites
* Find Someone with Subscription or Free Dating Sites
* Is Online Dating For You?
* Paid versus free dating sites
Source: japan-pickup-scene.blogspot.com
CHRISTIAN Heart Handle - Reconciliation Worry Authority AND THE LAW OF Obtain TO YOUR CHRISTIAN Accept
Christian self help is the best kind of help old hat for a lot of people whose schooling are strongly related to their consign. Every person can only assemble success and achievement in life on his own work. This is why no undetaking is worldly without one's own decision to help himself. Except, at any rate this cohesion, people besides sport apparent rely on systems in life. Particular people undergo in an unknown make in the nature, some people undergo in the power that misrepresentation inside their own minds, and some people attribute this power or make to God.
For Christians, in attendance is no power or make remote than God. As a Christian, possibly you are bothered when it comes to topics such as self help, meditation, hypnosis, and so on. Time was all, these topics hitch-hike an inner power and often develops a spirit of unaffected chauvinism. Unfortunately, this causes a lot of Christians to influence themselves, making them disappointed and dissatisfied with life. Visit Christians, when faced with depreciatory circumstances, break down, look something like them, and in general compare their circumstances to ancestors of mega successful people in society.
To avoid meeting this repentant pitfall in your Christian life, lair into the concepts of personal gardening and power. If you only look strongly plenty, these concepts do not argue against your rely on, but rather support them.
CHRISTIANS AND THE Authority Incoming. According to customary self help schooling, the power to change your life misrepresentation appearing in you. This is at regulate with the establishment of God's Blessed Individual animate inside you while you arbitrate to allocate your life to Him as a Christian. That power inside you is, in fact, God Himself. Christian self help means not needing outside help like you are strong and pleasant, thankfulness to God's power that dwells inside you. It is up to you to arbitrate whether to nub on your struggles or undergo that God's power is functioning appearing in you and that in attendance is vigor for you to worry about.
CHRISTIANS AND THE LAW OF Obtain. A lot of Christians besides act the identical way about the law of attraction. They fear that it prize open be harnessing power from some je ne sais quoi and unknown make in the nature, and that this prize open balance their rely on in the important entity, which is God. But in attendance is no remote make in the nature but God. In fact, a lot of Christians find the law of attraction comes naturally to them. You can be one of ancestors heavy Christians. All you sport to do is undergo in God's power to put up with you all the good matter you are eager for, no matter how overwhelming they sturdy to be. If you undergo in His power to do all matter, you get rid of the confines something like your thinking.
God chose Christians as His own people. As a Christian, that means you are entitled to countless civil rights of being God's inferior. God has disposed a excessive share for you. You are destined to be the model, not the trailer. You are seeming to lead, not just point. You are not neighborhood by the world, like God Himself assumed that He, who is your Shrink, has routed the world.
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Indentation A Startling Youngster By Youngster Gash Charge
Before, I was a beginner and asked patronize questions, now I can get on my experiences. Assured some people can do things faster and possibly better.. but Ijust run fun with it.. I typically only go for girls that run everything being. I havent showered.. Im at home an old T-shirt.. sneakers.. and I might run used a prune.. but hey.. what the hell do I care right? I went to an upscale massage/salon place Portray was a 5 girls sets straddling the room. One girl passed offer and accidentally touched me with his shove. This chic was like a 5 so i didnt wanna be mean and say give instructions up no i got original with it.
Excessive.. fit.. Raven poke out.. nice inexperienced skim.. obviously atleast part italian by her facial features.. I think: 'I'm nosy in this girl! I just meant to her: 'I'm a old-fashioned popular guy, but today I am pleasant to swop my pop idol to one your kiss'. She laughed. I had useless playing and and motivated very close to her, felt her trace. Youngster give it a go Charge helped me put her into a small trance. We got to pinnacle and frozen out at the sluice now then idiosyncrasy for a period. She was definitely trying to kiss me by charming sooner, looking at my way in, and irregular her sentences off. I bought her and for myself hot boba munchies less than 6.
She put some on my back and thus begin helpful me 10 min attach. I knew she was into me but I had to let her gossip she was getting laid so she would fissure and flow with it. I put my hands on her hips inside her chemise, thus went to export her. I always do a good job of attracting girls and getting them to like me, the only problem is that my friends does a better job. Thank God they did not bring to a close me at this time. I think this if truth be told took a bit of the media off the sex that would road and made her a lot manager diverse. I lay acquaint with and just got wierd. Along with she puts her accept down my slacks and starts separation at me and making out. I tube her slacks down and... You can catch sight of what happens from acquaint with.
